Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 128,675
2 South Dakota 122,999
3 Rhode Island 110,718
4 Utah 109,568
5 Arizona 106,287
6 Tennessee 105,765
7 Wisconsin 102,616
8 Iowa 102,443
9 Arkansas 100,370
10 Oklahoma 100,345
11 Nebraska 99,625
12 Kansas 96,780
13 Alabama 95,412
14 Indiana 94,594
15 Mississippi 93,588
16 Idaho 92,160
17 Nevada 91,486
18 Wyoming 90,656
19 Illinois 89,990
20 Montana 89,065
21 South Carolina 88,153
22 Louisiana 87,978
23 California 85,575
24 Georgia 85,185
25 Texas 84,988
26 Kentucky 84,126
27 New Mexico 84,036
28 Minnesota 82,495
29 Florida 81,587
30 Delaware 81,359
31 Missouri 81,348
32 New Jersey 79,833
33 Ohio 77,922
34 Massachusetts 77,464
35 North Carolina 74,988
36 Alaska 74,678
37 New York 74,596
38 Connecticut 72,347
39 Colorado 70,052
40 West Virginia 68,657
41 Pennsylvania 67,392
42 Michigan 61,824
43 Virginia 60,499
44 Maryland 59,416
45 District of Columbia 52,943
46 New Hampshire 49,361
47 Washington 42,277
48 Puerto Rico 40,266
49 Oregon 34,454
50 Maine 30,154
51 Vermont 20,037
52 Hawaii 18,434

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Carolina 734
2 Arkansas 707
3 Texas 572
4 Kentucky 539
5 Louisiana 530
6 Oklahoma 522
7 South Carolina 515
8 Arizona 511
9 Georgia 501
10 Alabama 473
11 Utah 422
12 Rhode Island 420
13 Florida 391
14 New York 378
15 Connecticut 372
16 Massachusetts 362
17 Virginia 342
18 California 338
19 Ohio 335
20 Tennessee 334
21 New Jersey 328
22 Montana 325
23 Iowa 320
24 Mississippi 316
25 West Virginia 301
26 Pennsylvania 282
27 Nevada 276
28 Kansas 270
29 New Mexico 264
30 Indiana 263
31 Idaho 262
32 Wisconsin 260
33 New Hampshire 259
34 Nebraska 257
35 Delaware 249
36 Alaska 246
37 Maine 245
38 Illinois 240
39 Missouri 239
40 Wyoming 236
41 Colorado 233
42 Vermont 224
43 Michigan 207
44 Maryland 187
45 South Dakota 187
46 Washington 185
47 District of Columbia 168
48 Minnesota 156
49 Oregon 154
50 North Dakota 153
51 Puerto Rico 77
52 Hawaii 54

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,453
2 New York 2,253
3 Massachusetts 2,144
4 Rhode Island 2,085
5 Mississippi 2,077
6 South Dakota 2,021
7 Connecticut 2,015
8 Louisiana 1,945
9 North Dakota 1,898
10 Arizona 1,894
11 Pennsylvania 1,729
12 Indiana 1,728
13 Alabama 1,706
14 Illinois 1,696
15 Arkansas 1,659
16 New Mexico 1,600
17 Iowa 1,595
18 Michigan 1,573
19 Tennessee 1,479
20 South Carolina 1,454
21 Nevada 1,437
22 Georgia 1,348
23 Kansas 1,336
24 Texas 1,331
25 District of Columbia 1,320
26 Florida 1,268
27 Montana 1,225
28 Missouri 1,224
29 Maryland 1,199
30 Delaware 1,165
31 West Virginia 1,160
32 Wisconsin 1,124
33 Minnesota 1,120
34 California 1,089
35 Wyoming 1,078
36 Nebraska 1,060
37 Colorado 1,002
38 Ohio 984
39 Idaho 978
40 North Carolina 931
41 Oklahoma 930
42 Kentucky 921
43 New Hampshire 797
44 Virginia 779
45 Washington 589
46 Puerto Rico 582
47 Utah 533
48 Oregon 478
49 Maine 468
50 Alaska 367
51 Hawaii 291
52 Vermont 290

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Indiana 81
2 Alabama 46
3 Arizona 30
4 Montana 23
5 Tennessee 21
6 Missouri 18
7 Wyoming 16
8 Georgia 15
9 Nevada 15
10 California 14
11 Mississippi 14
12 Iowa 13
13 South Carolina 13
14 Texas 13
15 Arkansas 12
16 Delaware 11
17 North Carolina 11
18 Rhode Island 11
19 New Jersey 10
20 Pennsylvania 10
21 Kansas 9
22 Kentucky 9
23 Louisiana 9
24 New Mexico 9
25 Oklahoma 9
26 West Virginia 9
27 Florida 8
28 Maine 8
29 Massachusetts 8
30 New York 8
31 Alaska 7
32 District of Columbia 7
33 Ohio 7
34 Connecticut 6
35 Michigan 6
36 Nebraska 6
37 New Hampshire 6
38 Virginia 6
39 Wisconsin 6
40 Illinois 5
41 Maryland 5
42 Utah 4
43 Oregon 3
44 South Dakota 3
45 Vermont 3
46 Washington 3
47 Colorado 2
48 Idaho 2
49 Minnesota 2
50 Puerto Rico 2
51 Hawaii 1
52 North Dakota 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 299,950 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 253,965 2 99
Bent Colorado 238,121 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 235,743 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 235,719 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 123,113 231 92
Richland South Carolina 87,883 1351 57
York South Carolina 81,038 1701 45
Orange California 78,470 1820 42
Pierce Washington 39,468 2899 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,506 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,111 1895 39
Richland South Carolina 1,075 1941 38
Orange California 1,023 2021 35
York South Carolina 950 2113 32
Pierce Washington 532 2661 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons